Can the U.S. Furniture & Décor Industry Survive a Tariff War?

Let’s be honest — the U.S. furniture and décor industry didn’t just start struggling during COVID, and it certainly isn’t facing pressure solely because of tariffs. The reality is, this industry has been unstable for years, leaning on legacy brands, outdated distribution models, and an ingrained resistance to innovation. Now, with global tariff wars threatening to shake up supply chains, inflate costs, and disrupt already fragile operations, the question becomes: can the U.S. furniture and décor industry actually survive what’s coming next?

A Shaky Foundation: The Industry Was Wounded Long Before COVID

When COVID hit, it was framed as an unprecedented disruptor. But in truth, the industry was already in a fragile state. The 2008 housing crash sent shockwaves through the furniture business — after all, when people stop buying homes, they stop buying furniture. The sector limped along, leaning into incremental growth, focusing on design trends, and hoping for the next housing boom. It never really came.

When COVID arrived, consumer behavior changed overnight. People, confined to their homes, initially rushed to upgrade their spaces. But by 2021, consumer interest had shifted again. Instead of doubling down on home life, people wanted to travel, experience the world, and invest in themselves, not their interiors. The sales bump many furniture companies hoped would carry them out of the pandemic faded faster than anticipated. And here’s the tough part: most manufacturers hadn’t adapted. They were still stuck in legacy practices, hoping things would return to “normal.”

The Tariff Time Bomb: More Than Just a Price Problem

Let’s clear this up — tariffs aren’t a new problem for this industry. But while predictable, targeted tariffs can be planned for with techniques like front-loading (stockpiling inventory before tariffs hit), the current landscape is much different. What we’re seeing now is an unpredictable, multi-industry, multi-nation tariff war with very little telegraphing. This isn’t just a hit on Chinese-made goods — components, raw materials, and sub-assemblies sourced from multiple countries are all being affected.

The truth is, “Made in America” is mostly an illusion for this category. Assembly might happen here, but the glass, hardware, textiles, and raw materials come from every corner of the globe. Many manufacturers are just now realizing that even the seemingly simple products they create involve global sourcing at every level — and every one of those touchpoints is now vulnerable.

This global sourcing problem collides with a critical issue — most legacy brands are too big, too rigid, and too debt-heavy to pivot quickly. They’ve built long, complex supply chains that don’t easily move. And those that can’t pivot, typically don’t survive.

An Industry Resistant to Change

The U.S. furniture industry has never been an early adopter. Historically, it’s an industry built on tradition, legacy, and slow-moving cycles. This conservatism has often protected it in tough times, but it’s a liability now.

Markets like the Chicago Mart, High Point, Dallas, and Las Vegas furniture expos were once bastions of innovation — in-person, exclusive buying opportunities for the industry’s elite. Today, many are shadows of their former selves. Chicago is long gone, San Francisco’s mart has been converted to Twitter’s HQ, and the remaining markets struggle with dwindling attendance and reduced exhibitor lists. The market model worked when the economy was predictable, but in today’s on-demand, digital-first, experience-hungry world, the old trade show model can’t keep up.

Meanwhile, digital marketing adoption has been equally sluggish. Marketing salaries in this industry consistently lag behind comparable roles in tech, fashion, or automotive — a clear sign that leadership doesn’t yet grasp marketing’s value. Even today, many brands distrust e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Wayfair, only participating because they were dragged there by necessity.

When companies like IMC (now ANDMORE) tried to digitize the experience by acquiring tech startups, they ran them like corporate divisions, stripping away innovation culture in the process. When these initiatives failed, the broader industry smugly declared that “tech doesn’t work for us” — as if the problem was technology itself, not their unwillingness to change.

COVID Was a Symptom, Not the Cause

It’s convenient to blame COVID for the industry’s woes, but the reality is that the pandemic merely accelerated issues that were already there.

In 2020, many brands stayed afloat by draining reserves and taking out loans. In 2021, they bet on recovery. When it didn’t come, they borrowed more in 2022. But by then, the market had permanently shifted. Consumers were spending differently, and manufacturers had done nothing to address the new demand landscape. Furniture wasn’t a top priority anymore. Travel, experiences, and outdoor living were.

2023 was expected to be a year of recovery. It wasn’t. And now, entering 2025, the industry is grappling with not only sluggish demand but supply chain instability, unpredictable tariffs, and mounting debt.

The Danger of Tariff Wars

Here’s the unique danger of the current tariff environment: it’s not just about higher costs — it’s about chaos.

Unlike predictable, isolated tariff changes, today’s tariffs are arbitrary, fast-moving, and multi-industry. Manufacturers don’t just have to worry about importing finished goods. They have to worry about the raw materials inside of a part, inside of an assembly, inside of a product — often with no easy alternatives.

Front-loading inventory is risky and expensive. Most brands don’t have the capital or warehouse space to stockpile months of materials at pre-tariff prices. Even if they did, it’s a short-term strategy at best. What happens when a new tariff hits before you can rebuild inventory? Or warehouse space to stockpile months of materials at pre-tariff prices. Even if they did, it’s a short-term strategy at best. What happens when a new tariff hits before you can rebuild inventory? Or when your front-loaded goods age out of trend?

If tariffs continue rising unpredictably, we’ll see:

• Small to midsize manufacturers closing their doors

• Private equity firms scooping up distressed brands and selling off assets

• Larger companies slashing SKUs, reducing inventories, and consolidating operations

• Longer lead times, higher prices, and reduced product variety for consumers

And as for the trade shows and Markets? Expect thinner attendance, empty booths, and staff layoffs — even as the marketing machines insist that everything’s fine.

What Needs to Change?

If the U.S. furniture and décor industry has any hope of surviving — let alone thriving — it must do three things:

1. Hire Outside Talent - Bring in experienced leaders from companies like Amazon, Wayfair, OpenAI, or other major e-commerce and logistics powerhouses. The industry desperately needs fresh eyes and bold thinkers.

2. Rebuild Local Supply Chains - Shift to a more localized, distributed manufacturing model. Acquiring small, regional manufacturers and combining local production with digital sales channels could dramatically reduce exposure to global tariffs.

3. Drastically Reduce SKUs - Focus on fewer, better products. Streamlining product lines cuts costs, simplifies logistics, and allows for faster, more nimble adjustments when market conditions change.

The Path Forward: Embrace Innovation or Fade Away

There’s a hard truth most in this industry don’t want to hear: if you resist change, you will be replaced by someone who won’t.

Markets have changed. Customers have changed. The way we design, buy, and value furniture has changed. The brands that will survive are those willing to rethink everything — from sourcing and manufacturing to marketing and distribution.

COVID didn’t kill this industry. Tariffs won’t either. But a refusal to evolve absolutely will.

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What are your thoughts? Can the U.S. furniture industry pull off a comeback? Are we headed for a full-on collapse, or is this the shakeup the industry’s needed for years?

Let’s talk about it. Share your perspective below.